After the elimination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, Lebanon in turmoil
By eliminating the leader of Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah, in an extremely intense air raid, the Israeli government has just crossed a red line in its open war against Hezbollah, which began on Monday with intensive air bombardments on the south and in the plain. of the Bekaa where the main bases of the movement are located. Indeed, the elimination of the leader of Hezbollah and several other leaders of the movement constitutes an important turning point in a conflict likely to experience slippages dangerous for the security and stability of the entire Middle East region.
So far, the Israeli army has focused its efforts on eliminating Hezbollah military leaders and destroying missile and rocket launch sites. By directly attacking the political leadership of the movement, the Israeli government has just taken a dangerous step. Indeed, this act of war risks pushing Hezbollah’s allies in the region (Iran, Iraq, Syria, Yemen) to react in one way or another, which could give the Israeli government the convenient pretext for a new military escalation whose ulterior aim is to draw Iran and the United States into direct confrontation.
What is Israel looking for?
The decapitation of Hezbollah could be interpreted as a signal for a total war aimed at eradicating this movement which constitutes in the eyes of Israeli leaders a serious security and military threat in the event of a regional war against Iran. On the other hand, the act, spectacular in itself, could paradoxically mean that Israel seeks above all to knock out its adversary and paralyze it to force it to agree to withdraw behind the Litani River, thus putting at risk shelter the colonies located in Galilee.
However, it cannot be ruled out that the Israeli government sought through this extreme act to provoke a chain reaction from Iran and its allies in the region which could give the signal for an open regional war which would not leave indifferent the United States forced to intervene alongside Israel. By reiterating its desire to avoid a regional conflagration, the American Administration has just shown that it is well aware of the provocative conduct of the Netanyahu government and there is no doubt that it has already sent a clear message in this direction to Tehran.
How will Iran react?
Certainly, the affront represented by the elimination of the leader of Hezbollah is so great that it is difficult to see Iran remaining without any reaction. Iran’s passivity following the assassination in Tehran of Hamas leader Ismail Hanieh undoubtedly encouraged the Israeli government in its hawkish escalation and undermined the credibility of the Iranian regime within Arab public opinion. But a similar passivity the day after the elimination of Hassan Nasrallah would have completely different consequences within the regional pro-Iranian movement which obeys, whatever it claims, more to geopolitical and confessional motivations than to anti-Iranian demands. imperialists and anti-Zionists.
To maintain its political control both internally and externally, the Iranian regime will undoubtedly be forced to react. But whatever actions he will be forced to take after the Israeli provocation, they will not exceed the red line set by his desire to safeguard his chances of negotiating a new nuclear agreement with the United States. But to save face and maintain its influence over its allies in the region, Tehran could encourage them to take more substantial actions than those to which they have been required until now.
Lebanon in danger
Whatever the scenarios that are likely to emerge in the coming days in the region, there is an essential question that deserves immediate attention as it involves the future of Lebanon as a nation and society. The decapitation of Hezbollah unfortunately risks giving the signal to an internal slippage likely to compromise civil peace in Lebanon. Social and political forces on the lookout risk taking advantage of the destabilization of Hezbollah to embark on a dangerous politico-military adventure inside.
The voices that have been raised in recent days against a backdrop of exploitation of the fear aroused by the massive arrival in Beirut of Shiite refugees from southern Lebanon, added to the negligence of the public authorities who have not planned anything for this, unfortunately constitute a harbinger of what awaits Lebanon in the coming weeks.
It is not excluded that the Israeli government had this sinister prospect in mind when it took the decision to decapitate a movement with all the consequences that this could have on internal political stability, given that Hezbollah had become, over time, years, whether we like it or not, a real State within a State.
Faced with the adversity represented by Israeli aggression, will the Lebanese be able to transcend their differences to preserve civil peace and intercommunity coexistence? Will all the political forces, today divided on the conditions and modalities of a difficult re-foundation of an independent and sovereign Lebanese State, be able to circumscribe their differences within a framework which preserves Lebanon from a relapse into discord and civil war? This is the main issue of what is currently playing out in Lebanon behind the smoke released by the incessant bombings of the Israeli army.
