Gaza: a study by the Max Planck Institute, based in Germany, reveals that the human toll could have exceeded 100,000

A recent study by the Germany-based Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research and the Center for Demographic Studies highlights the tragic scale of the war in Gaza. Between October 7, 2023 and the end of 2024, researchers estimate that more than 78,000 people were killed. An update of their analysis suggests that by October 2025, the death toll could have exceeded 100,000.

The study also reveals an unprecedented collapse in life expectancy in the Gaza Strip: in 2024, it would have fallen by almost half compared to what it would have been without the war, an average loss of more than 36 years of life. Faced with fragmentary data in the context of conflict, researchers have developed a statistical model capable of integrating these uncertainties. They relied on several sources, including the Gaza Ministry of Health, the UN and human rights organizations. The authors specify that their work only takes into account direct deaths linked to violence. The indirect effects – famine, disease, health collapse – could make the toll even heavier.

The researchers also point out that the distribution of victims by age and gender resembles that observed in other major conflicts documented by the UN, where civilian populations, particularly the youngest, paid a disproportionate toll. This trend reinforces the idea that Gazan society is being struck at the heart of its demographic structure. Finally, the study recalls the importance of having reliable data to measure the real impact of wars on populations. According to the authors, producing robust estimates is not just a scientific exercise: it is an essential tool for alerting the international community to the scale of human destruction and guiding humanitarian responses.

Analytically, these figures pose a central question: beyond the immediate shock, what will be the lasting consequences for Palestinian society? Such a sudden decline in life expectancy reflects not only massive losses, but also the collapse of living conditions, public health and future prospects. In the long term, this demographic hemorrhage could further weaken an already strained population, accentuating humanitarian dependence and compromising any social and economic reconstruction.