Iran: holding on only through repression, a weakened and isolated regime on the verge of collapse in the face of massive demonstrations

ByMuhammad

For several weeks, Iran has been hit by a wave of nationwide protests. Part of economic demands linked to inflation, precariousness and the collapse of purchasing power, the protests quickly took on an explicit political dimension. In many cities, slogans are now directly targeting the foundations of the Islamic Republic, raising a central question: is the Iranian regime really threatened with fall?

Social anger turned political

The current protest differs from previous movements by its roots in various social strata. Traders, students, precarious workers and the impoverished middle classes converge in a common anger against a system perceived as locked, corrupt and incapable of meeting the fundamental needs of the population.

Unlike other episodes of protest, fear seems to be receding. The demonstrators are no longer only demanding reforms, but are openly expressing their rejection of the political order in place. This psychological rupture constitutes one of the most worrying elements for Iranian power, whose ideological legitimacy appears increasingly weakened.

A regime that stifles freedoms and destroys prospects for the future

Beyond the immediate repression, the current mobilization finds its source in a deeper malaise. For decades, the Iranian regime has been depriving the population — and in particular women and youth — of fundamental freedoms, whether political, social or cultural. Restrictions on lifestyles, individual expression and personal choices fuel a widespread sense of suffocation.

Added to this deprivation of freedoms is a persistent economic crisis, marked by inflation, unemployment and the collapse of professional prospects. For a large part of Iranian youth, it is no longer just a question of contesting power, but of demanding the right to live: to live freely, to work with dignity, to love, to create and to project oneself into the future. This aspiration collides head-on with a system perceived as fixed, authoritarian and disconnected from a young, educated and world-oriented society.

Massive repression with serious political consequences

Faced with the mobilization, the Iranian authorities responded with severe repression: mass arrests, use of force, Internet shutdowns and religious criminalization of protesters. This strategy aims to break the street dynamic and prevent any structuring of the movement. But this repression comes at a high political price. By relying almost exclusively on coercion, the regime accentuates the break with an already deeply mistrustful society. Each arrest, each death and each blackout reinforces the feeling of injustice and further erodes the legitimacy of power, including among sectors which were until then passive or resigned to it.

In the medium term, this repressive logic weakens the regime itself: it does not resolve any of the root causes of social anger and transforms a one-off protest into a structural crisis of trust between the State and the population.

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A weakened regime but still having important levers of control

Despite these weaknesses, it would be premature to announce the imminent collapse of the regime. The Iranian security apparatus still has significant levers of control, relying on organized structures and generally maintained institutional loyalty. The Revolutionary Guards continue to play a central role in maintaining political order, both militarily and economically.

Furthermore, the protest movement still suffers from a lack of unified leadership and a clear political strategy. The absence of a structured alternative limits, for the moment, the capacity of the streets to transform popular anger into a credible transition project.

The Iranian crisis becomes a regional geopolitical issue

The Iranian internal situation now has repercussions well beyond its borders. According to reports published by Reuters on January 11, 2026, Israel has placed itself on high alert for the possibility of US intervention in Iran, as protests continue. The American President Donald Trump has multiplied statements in recent days, warning Iranian leaders against the use of force and affirming that the United States stands “ready to help”. This posture has prompted high-level security consultations in Israel.

A telephone exchange notably took place between the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the US Secretary of State Marco Rubioduring which the Iranian situation would have been discussed. If Israel does not publicly express its intention to intervene, the memory of the direct military confrontation between Israel and Iran last June remains present in everyone’s minds.

A popular revolt threatened by the logic of power

This internationalization of the crisis constitutes a major danger for Iranian demonstrators. The protest risks being caught up in power logics that go beyond it, transforming popular, social and political mobilization into a strategic adjustment variable for external actors. At the same time, American intervention — even limited — could tip the situation into an open regional crisis, relegating the fundamental aspirations of the Iranian population to the background. The risk is then to see a revolt born from the desire to live freely dissolve into geopolitical clashes which serve neither the people nor democracy.

The Islamic Republic is undoubtedly going through one of the most serious crises in its recent history. The erosion of its social legitimacy, the scale of the economic crisis and the persistence of the protests constitute serious warning signals. However, the fall of the regime is neither automatic nor imminent. Everything will depend on several decisive factors: the ability of the demonstrators to last and organize, the attitude of the security forces, and the role that foreign powers choose to play. The future of Iran is being played out today at the crossroads of the streets, repression and geopolitics.

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Muhammad

Muhammad is a visionary thinker and passionate writer who has been contributing to Understanding Islam for several years.