What can the Middle East expect from the BRICS+ summit?

The BRICS+ summit meets in Kazan (Russia) from October 22 to 24 in an international context marked by conflicts and serious geopolitical tensions like what is happening in Ukraine and the Middle East where the risks of a regional war, with incalculable consequences for world peace and the economy, appears more and more every day.

Faced with the powerlessness of the United Nations and Europe to put an end to the genocidal war waged by the Israeli army in Gaza, due to the unconditional support granted by the United States to the colonialist and racist state of Israel, all eyes are on the BRICS+ group, whose summit opens in Kazan on October 22.

By holding this summit, Putin will be keen to show that Russia is not so isolated on the international scene. Indeed, the leaders of around twenty states are expected at the Kazan summit. If Brazilian President Lula will not be present for medical reasons, the Chinese, Indian, Iranian, Egyptian, Ethiopian and Emirati presidents will be present.

Turkish President Tayep Erdogan, whose country expressed its desire to join the group in early September, will be one of the distinguished guests of the summit. Other leaders of countries that have expressed their desire to be part of the organization, such as Mexico, Colombia, South Korea, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia and Vietnam, are also expected. Saudi Arabia, for its part, does not seem in a hurry to join the group and was content to send its foreign minister to the summit.

In the hope of garnering the support of the countries of the global South, Putin will not hesitate to point out that the ambition of BRICS+ is to counterbalance American hegemony and lay the foundations of a new world order. more balanced. He will undoubtedly address the ongoing conflicts, Ukraine and the Middle East, which threaten world peace and the harmful role that the United States and NATO play in fueling these conflicts.

The war in Ukraine and the Middle East on the summit menu

The Turkish and Iranian presidents are expected to use the summit platform to call on BRICS+ members to act more decisively to force an end to the Israeli army’s war in Gaza and Lebanon as well. as the threat of a major Israeli attack against Iran which risks degenerating into a regional war with incalculable consequences for world peace if Israel succeeds in drawing the United States into the conflict.

However, the geopolitical and economic calculations of each of the BRICS+ members, which are not necessarily similar, hardly allow us to hope for decisions from this summit that match the political and military challenges both in Ukraine and in the Middle East.

In Ukraine, China has certainly allowed Russia to circumvent certain international sanctions and the increase in Chinese imports of Russian oil and gas undoubtedly constitutes a breath of fresh air for Moscow. But Putin expected more from his Chinese ally who has always refused to become militarily involved in the conflict.

In the Middle East, there is no reason to hope for a decisive BRICS+ position to end the Israeli war in both Gaza and Lebanon. The members of BRICS+ who are at the same time permanent members of the Security Council (Russia, China) demonstrated throughout a year of terrible war in Gaza their powerlessness in the face of the unconditional support of the United States for Israel which resembles for authorization to continue the massacre of Palestinians.

Worse, the members of BRICS+ can do nothing to prevent Israel from striking Iran, which is one of them. The only question worth asking concerns their attitude in the event of an open regional war in which the United States would be directly involved and which would aim to destroy the Islamic Republic of Iran.

In the latter case, it is likely that Russia and China would be forced to lift the restrictions they have applied so far on the delivery of strategic weapons to Iran. Indeed, until now, Russia has procrastinated in arming its Iranian ally by refusing to deliver Su-35 combat aircraft and S-400 air defense systems, officially due to the international embargo on Iran but in reality Moscow simply gave in to Israeli pressure.

What can the BRICS+ global south hope for?

Public opinions in the global South, and in particular in Africa and the Arab world, expect a lot from BRICS+ to counterbalance the stifling Western and especially American hegemony. But perhaps they expect too much from a half-political, half-economic entity whose heterogeneity prevents it from being projected as a consistent geopolitical bloc.

There is no doubt that powers like Russia and China have the means to stop the war in the Middle East without jeopardizing the security of Israel, a state with which they maintain good relations, it should be remembered. . But if they do not do so it is because they do not want to take the risk of compromising their economic and strategic interests in the region and in their relations with the United States and Europe.

What do the thousands of deaths in Gaza weigh against the 3,000 billion dollars of the Emirates Investment Fund towards which Russia and India are eyeing? And what is the value of the Palestinian people’s right to self-determination in the face of access to the American and European markets which constitute the alpha and omega of Chinese foreign policy?

The growing share of the BRICS+ in the world economy is a serious indicator that we must now count with this group alongside the G7 and the G20 if only as a new multilateral forum where the terms of cooperation can be discussed. a new global governance. But from there to hoping for the resolution of the governance problems which determine the future of peace and sustainable development in the world, there is still a giant step to take.

This step will only be taken on the condition that the peoples of the global South, starting with the Arab and African peoples, take their destiny into their own hands by getting rid of authoritarian and corrupt regimes which prevent the expression of vitality and genius of their youth whose best talents are forced into exile.

This is a necessary condition for African and Arab countries to finally be able to take advantage of contradictions and international rivalries on the long road to liberation, development and social progress for all and not only for new oligarchies whose only horizon is to replace one master with another.