Elections in Israel: a very good score for the Arab parties, which could become decisive

Arab parties could play a major role after the Israeli legislative elections. The Joint List, which brings together three secular groups – Hadash, Ta’al and Balad – mainly anchored in the Palestinian population of Israel, designated as “Arab” in official terminology, is credited with 10 seats. Ra’am, the Islamic-oriented United Arab List led by Mansour Abbas, would get 7. These projections would bring their total to 17 MPs, within the range of initial estimates, which gave them between 16 and 18 seats. The partial results reported by Reuters on Wednesday morning, however, gave them 15. While the counting continues, neither the camp of Benjamin Netanyahu nor that of his rival Gadi Eisenkot reaches the 61 seats necessary to govern. These figures remain provisional.

This result underlines the political weight of Israel’s Arab citizens, while their representatives often remain despised and kept away from power. Benjamin Netanyahu refuses to form a government dependent on their support. For his part, Gadi Eisenkot has also largely ruled out an alliance with them. However, both camps find themselves faced with a reality: Arab parties count in Parliament and could influence the search for a majority. It remains to be seen whether this electoral weight will translate into a real place in the negotiations. The Joint List and Ra’am could notably allow a minority government to maintain itself thanks to external support. But if the refusals to cooperate persist, the country risks experiencing a new blockage, or even new elections.

In an analysis published on Despite Likud’s gains, Netanyahu would have no clear path to forming a government, while Eisenkot would need support from Arab parties, which he has pledged not to seek. Danny Citrinowicz also emphasizes that a resumption of military confrontation with Iran, which he considers a serious possibility, could change the situation and offer Netanyahu the opportunity to plead for a government of national unity in order to remain in power.

The final results will allow us to see things more clearly.