Israel: the British daily The Telegraph evokes the risk of a civil war

Political and religious divisions fuel concerns about Israel’s stability. In an article published on October 23, the British daily The Telegraph evokes the risk of a civil war, against a backdrop of tensions around the military service of the ultraorthodox and violence by settlers. An assessment attributed to the CIA also envisages a risk of civil conflict and even state collapse, but its authenticity has not been publicly confirmed.

Who must go to fight, and who can escape? According to the investigation of The Telegraphseveral passages of which were taken up by other media, the question of military service constitutes one of the main fractures in Israeli society. The exemptions from which ultra-Orthodox men have long benefited fuel the resentment of reservists who are repeatedly mobilized. Defenders of these exemptions cite the preservation of their religious life and the study of the Torah. Always according to The Telegraphthis divide goes beyond the opposition between religious and secular people. It also crosses the religious camp: nationalists engaged in the army contest the exemptions of the ultraorthodox. From the point of view of families of reservists, the feeling of injustice relates to the duration of mobilizations, the absences and the risks incurred by their loved ones, while others escape military service.

However, this anger must be distinguished from opposition to the military operations themselves: contesting the sharing of military obligations does not mean, in itself, calling into question the genocide in Gaza or the crimes committed against the Palestinians in the occupied West Bank. Settler violence constitutes another source of tension identified by The Telegraph. According to passages from his investigation taken up by other media, intervention by the authorities against these groups could provoke internal confrontations. The British daily believes that these disagreements, added to the political polarization around Benjamin Netanyahu, could encourage large-scale unrest.

Information regarding the CIA also requires an essential qualification. American media Drop Site News reported on October 5 the existence of a confidential assessment, citing two American sources who described its contents. Taken over by The Telegraphthis assessment would consider scenarios of civil conflict and state collapse. It would come from the “Red Cell”, responsible for producing alternative analyzes within the agency. As its authenticity has not been publicly confirmed, it cannot be presented as an official CIA prediction.

In terms of analysis, Israeli military interventions in Lebanon and support for militias during the civil war recall the role played by Israel in the conflicts in its neighborhood, without making it solely responsible. Today, the internal risks mentioned by The Telegraph highlight a striking contrast: imposing one’s power beyond one’s borders does not protect against internal fractures.