Le Pen at 35%, Mélenchon solid: the 2027 presidential election is taking shape against a backdrop of anger

Seven months before the 2027 presidential election, the first major electoral survey carried out for The World depicts a profoundly disrupted political landscape, against a backdrop of concern and distrust. Marine Le Pen largely dominates the first round. In all the configurations tested, the National Rally candidate received between 33% and 35% of voting intentions, or at least one in three voters. An electoral base which now goes well beyond the categories traditionally acquired by the RN: it reaches in particular 43% among those in their fifties and around 38% among those in their forties and among those over 60.

Behind her, Jean-Luc Mélenchon appears to be the candidate with the most solid electoral base, with 15.5% to 17% of voting intentions depending on the scenario. The leader of La France insoumise even comes first among 18-34 year olds, ahead of Marine Le Pen.

The survey also confirms the weakening of traditional political groups. Nearly 45% of LR supporters plan to vote for a candidate other than Bruno Retailleau, while a third of Socialist supporters would not choose the PS candidate.

But beyond the electoral balance of power, it is above all the state of mind of the French which is of concern. Three quarters of those questioned think that the situation in the country will deteriorate in the coming months. 59% mention concern and 30% anger, figures which are up sharply compared to 2024. More than seven in ten French people now want “real social and political change”. A desire for a break that crosses almost all electorates. Finally, unlike a political campaign often dominated by migration or identity issues, economic concerns top voters’ priorities, ahead of social, environmental and identity issues.

Seven months before the election, this first photograph obviously does not prejudge the final result. But it highlights two major phenomena: an RN installed at an unprecedented electoral level and a deeply worried France, which massively expresses its desire for change.